Archive for October, 2003

A beautiful myth: The cost (and more cost) of personalization

By Simon van Wyk

After years of hyping the benefits of personalization, even the biggest booster-minded Internet research companies are admitting that it hasn’t delivered what it promised, as Simon van Wyk writes.

Ten years after first appearing on the online radar, personalization still hasn’t taken hold on commercial websites. And it may never take hold, if businesses pay attention to a report published in October by Jupiter Research.

The report, called “Beyond the Personalization Myth”, found that personalized websites are four times more expensive to run than ordinary corporate sites, and they are twice as likely to attract visitors who will never pay for anything. Worse still, it found that 25% of consumers actually avoid personalized websites because they fear their personal information will be abused.

Personalization has not come a long way since marketing experts Don Pepper and Martha Rogers coined the term back in 1993. As Australian technology writer David Shore writes, “Around 1995, technology-oriented marketing types put Peppers and Rogers together with the Internet and concluded that online commerce would be one-to-one marketing’s killer app.

“Online stores, the Internet strategists concluded, needed unique, one-to-one relationships with all their customers. And customers who entered such close relationships would find it difficult to leave and establish new relationships (and enter new personal data) at some other site.”

The high point for personalization was in the late 90s, fuelled by reports such as “Personalize or Perish?” by Forrester Research.” Companies such as Broadvision and ATG convinced companies all around the world to spend millions of dollars per installation on personalization technology, without a framework in place to measure whether companies would make any return on their seven-figure investments.

But developing technology sophisticated enough to achieve the promise of one-to-one marketing offered by the Web has turned out to be one of the most difficult technical challenges faced by commercial websites.

As usability consultant Jakob Nielsen says, “Web personalisation is much over-rated and mainly used as a poor excuse for not designing a navigable website.”

Technology writer Gerry McGovern wrote back in 2000: “Personalisation is a great idea. But before buying some personalisation tools, ask yourself this simple question: Why would someone want a personalised version of my website? Or, maybe even ask a few more rudimentary questions: Why would someone want to visit my website in the first place? Why would they want to come back?”

David Shore writes that, “Personalisation technology understands consumers poorly. Amazon.com, the poster child of personalisation, will start recommending needlepoint books to you as soon as you order that ideal gift for your great aunt. At this point, even the thickest consumer is apt to realise he and his online bookstore aren’t that close.”

And consumers aren’t that thick. According to the Jupiter report, only 14% of consumers say that personalized offers or recommendations on shopping Web sites lead them to buy more often from online stores, and just 8% say that personalization increases their repeat visits to content, news or entertainment Web sites.

On the other hand, most consumers stated that basic site improvements would make them buy or visit Web sites more often - 54% cited faster-loading pages and 52% cited better navigation as greater incentives.

According to Matthew Berk, Research Director at Jupiter Research, “Most Web site personalization projects fail to deliver real business benefits. Our industry has always assumed that a personalized Web site was a better one, both for the visitor and the site operator. Our research has found that this is not the case.”

The report said personalization was not only ineffective, but surprisingly expensive. Personalizing a site was more than twice as likely to result in finding visitors who would never pay for anything, as it was to attract paying customers, the study found.

Why hasn’t personalization worked? Web content and design expert Gerry McGovern says it’s because, “most people don’t have a compelling reason to personalize. It hasn’t worked because the cost of doing it well usually significantly outweighs the benefits it delivers.”

“People go to web sites to accomplish specific tasks, and the best investment you can make in a website is to help people accomplish those tasks,” Matthew Berk said. “If the report has one goal, it’s to ring a warning bell to companies who thought that simply having personalization was to have a better web site.”

Given flexible, usable navigation and search, Web site visitors will be more satisfied with their experiences and will find fewer barriers to the profitable behaviour sought by site operators, according to the report. “In fact, good navigation can replace personalization in most cases.”

Berk calls website personalization a “beautiful myth.”

“The ROI of personalization is dramatically unproven everywhere we’ve looked,” says Berk.

Proponents of personalization claim that increases in customer satisfaction justify the investment. However, of companies that determine their online budgets as a percent of revenue, only one in five used comparable metrics to justify personalization ROI, according to the Jupiter study.

Berk believes that that is a strategic miscalculation. He says operating a personalized website can cost upwards of four times that of operating a comparable dynamic site.

“Measuring customer satisfaction is fine,” Berk says. “But if you’re going to spend a boatload of money on a site, you should measure how if affects revenue.”

David Shore writes, “Traditional business likes the Internet personalisation story. It suggests that Internet retailing might lock in consumers and churn out margins as fat as bricks-and-mortar retailing. For the most part, this is a delusion. Internet personalisation is not a Big Idea but a Small Idea, a Special-Circumstances Idea, a Use-With-Care Idea. It is an idea that most websites should, for now, dismiss.”

Gerry McGovern says there are some simple ways to achieve the benefits promised by personalization. “When I come to your website I want your view of how you will solve my problems. I want to get in and out quickly with as little effort as possible. How do you keep me happy? Simple.

“Teach your staff how to write well. Design a layout that allows me to read easily. Spend time creating a navigation that is simple and intuitive. Fix your search engine. Get the basics right. Garbage in, garbage out. Do you want to pay four times more for personalized garbage?”

Under the iceberg’s tip

By Simon van Wyk

The revolution loudly proclaimed and then just as loudly declaimed has now taken place, argues Simon van Wyk.

The Internet has now been out of the news headlines for a couple of years.

The funny thing is, during that time it has quietly but steadily been fulfilling those ridiculous predictions about fundamental business changes that led to the rapid expansion and then explosion of the Internet bubble.

Tom Peters wrote recently in Fortune that the work being done on the Internet over the past several years has been on the 90% of the iceberg below the surface. The Internet bubble was all about the bit sticking out of the water; the last three years have been about building a strong foundation below the water line.

Looking at the impact of the Internet on the way business is now done worldwide, compared to even five years ago, I have to agree with Peters’ assessment. Here are some recent statistics on Internet use and ecommerce and their affect on traditional business and media that point towards business effects that I can only call astonishing:

  • Online retail sales in the US are expected to grow to more than US$94 billion this year (Jupiter Research).
  • Daily US newspaper circulation in 1982 was 62.5 million; in 2002 it was 55.1 million (Scarborough Research/NAA).
  • C-level (those with a “chief” in their title) executives’ most important source of business information is the Web (38%), followed by daily newspapers (26%, industry trade publications (17%), magazines (8%); TV (7%) and radio (4%) (GartnerG2).
  • The Internet is the top media source “influentials” use to research places to visit (86%) or things to buy (82%) (RoperASW).
  • Virtually all affluent adult shoppers (HHI $100K+) use the Web to make or research their purchases. For automobile, computer and travel purchases, Internet use is extraordinarily high (>90%) (Nielsen/NetRatings).
  • Teens and young adults spend more time with the Web than various other media: online (excluding e-mail), 16.7 hours/week; TV, 13.6 hours/week; reading books/magazines (not scholastic), 6.0 hours/week (Harris Interactive).
  • For car buying decisions, search engine advertising (26%) is a stronger influence than television ads (17%) (Cap Gemini Ernst & Young).
  • Email marketing campaigns (especially those directed to existing customers) produce dramatically better return on investment (ROI) (14.2) than any other method, with daylight second, followed by direct response TV (8.4) and direct mail (7.2) (Direct Marketing Association).
  • Email campaigns cost an average of $0.09 per contact, while direct mail cost $0.55 per contact. Only free standing inserts, at $0.06 per contact, were cheaper than e-mail, but they also had a much lower response rate (Direct Marketing Association).
  • 56% of US small businesses attribute some portion of their annual sales to having an online presence, while 78% say they benefit from having a website and 33% say it is their strongest marketing tool. 23% say up to 10% of total sales come from their website, while a staggering 12% say between 76% and 100% of their sales come from the Internet (Interland).
  • Nearly half of all American adults say they looked for product information online in the past year, totalling more than 103 million shoppers. More than 75 million are using search engines to find products. The average number of online transactions per year of online purchasers is three times the average number of transactions per year made by mail order shoppers (Dieringer Research Group).
  • 23 million Americans spend $500 or more both online and offline after first seeking product/service information online - up 50% from 2002. This group, labelled “hyper-shoppers”, rate Web sites as their most valuable way of obtaining product information. Half say the Internet allows them to find better prices and one out of five say it allows them to spend more time with their families. Nearly two-thirds of all hyper-shoppers say the value of the Internet to their purchase decision-making increased in the past 12 months. (Dieringer Research Group).
  • Worldwide CD sales have declined by 15% p.a. over the past couple of years, with much of the blame lain at the feet of online file-swapping services such as Napster and Kazaa (Recording Industry Association of America). In a related statistic, the world’s largest record company, Universal Music, has slashed the wholesale price of its recorded CDs by 30% across the board, also citing the impact of online music sites as the biggest reason for its decision.
  • Traditional newspaper classified advertising is in steady decline in Australia and around the world, and a continuing migration from offline to online classified services such as Google, Yahoo and eBay is predicted because of factors such as ease of use, breadth and depth of listing, compelling value proposition for sellers and cost-effective online transaction platforms (i-searchenginemarketing.com)

As Larry Everling argues in a recent article in ClickZ (where he did the hard work in gathering several of the statistics quoted above), “What will it take for everyone to recognize the massive shift in media consumption to the Web? How much data are needed to unshackle thinking that remains rigidly fixated on decades of increasingly unsupportable conventional wisdom?”

In 1999, the Internet loudly and brashly announced that the revolution had arrived. By the middle of 2000, that was revolution was proved to be powered largely by hot air. But now, late in 2003, the Internet has stealthily slipped under the publicity radar and taken over the city of commerce.

And as the boosters rashly predicted late last decade, it is those businesses that embrace the online world that will be the ones who survive into the current century.