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A comprehensive research report has identified 10 major trends affecting the future of the World Wide Web, as Simon van Wyk reports.

Believe it or not, it’s only been 10 years since the World Wide Web truly became a commercial proposition. To celebrate this milestone, the Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future recently released the largest longitudinal study ever produced on the Internet. Ten Years, Ten Trends has identified the 10 most significant trends of the last 10 years and the next 10 years. Those trends are:

1. One Digital Divide is closing, but another one is opening up. In the early days of the Internet, it was a rich man’s toy. It took several years before women embraced it and longer again before low and middle-income consumers began using it seriously. But now in countries like Australia, the US and Korea, more than 75% of the population is using the Internet at home, work or school - particularly school, as nearly every school in the country is online.

But the Annenberg researchers identified a new digital divide, between the broadband and dial-up users. That divide is also narrowing, but in the meantime only a small proportion of users can enjoy video and other rich media. This will continue to have a dampening effect on the possibilities marketers can explore online.

2. Media habits have changed and will keep changing.
The biggest impact the Internet has had on media consumption is that the more people use the Internet, the less they watch TV. This will continue to have a bigger and bigger effect on advertisers. The Internet has also hastened the decline in print readership, which was already in decline.

Email has also had a dramatic effect on overall communication use. The Annenberg researchers found that 25% of Americans said they received messages of concern from people outside the US after September 11. They have mused, “Would that personal contact have occurred without email?”

3. The credibility of the Internet is dropping.
As the quote goes, œIt was once said that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters would eventually produce the works of Shakespeare. The Internet has now shown that statement to be untrue. There’s a lot of crap out there, and it’s not surprising that ratings of the reliability and accuracy of information on the Web is dropping every year. However, people do trust information on websites they visit regularly, and on pages created by established media and the government.

4. Ecommerce has only just begun.
Security concerns and the tech stock crash dampened the possible growth in online commerce over the past 10 years, but the researchers argue this is a good thing as security is now at a high level and the normal rules of business apply to Internet firms, rather than living in a fantasy world of wildly speculative tech investment and irresponsible business claims. The impact of ecommerce on traditional bricks-and-mortar retailing is predicted to be stronger, not weaker, over the next 10 years.

5. The Internet is no longer “geeky”.
As the study reports, œIt seems laughable in 2004 to think that there was a time only a few years ago when the stereotype of the Internet user was the “geek-nerd” who was thoroughly separate and alienated from mainstream society Internet users (today) are often more socially active than non-users, and are less alienated from others…. Internet users communicate with others more, not less.  As Sean Carton writes in ClickZ: “People expect to be able to contact you and your company when they’re online. Anything seen as a barrier to this runs counter to Web culture.”

6. Privacy and security concerns are changing.
Concerns remain, but the high levels are changing. Far fewer people are œvery or extremely concerned about privacy and security compared to two or three years ago. A new type of privacy concern is emerging: concern over online activity being monitored. eMarketer reports that “Issues with viruses, spam and phishing do nothing to allay these fears.

7. Internet is now number one info source for Internet users.
The report states that The Internet has become the most important source of current information for users the primary place they go for research, general information, hobbies, entertainment listings, travel, health, and investments. The ‘always-on’ function of broadband has accelerated this importance.

When one can turn to the computer in the kitchen to instantly access movie schedules from a bookmarked location, what does that say about the functionality  or even the need for the entertainment sections of the local traditional media?

Sean Carton points out that “the trend points to the importance of URLs as brands: If people can’t get the information they need from you, they’ll go somewhere else that’s easier to remember or find.

8. The benefits and drawbacks of the Internet for children are still coming into focus.
The Internet has transformed the completion of school assignments all over the connected world (If you don’t believe that, you obviously don’t have kids). There is still debate over whether it, in fact, improves grades. Paying attention to the Internet takes more time and attention than monitoring other in-home activities such as TV viewing. The report says “The many Internet dilemmas for parents will continue, and many new ones will no doubt emerge. As I recall, they said the same thing about TV 50 years ago, and we didn’t grow up totally corrupted did we?

9. Email: the great communicator and the great irritator.
Email is still the single most important reason people go online, but it is both a great convenience and a great irritation. Spam, information overload, viruses, the time it takes to stay on top of your inbox, are all dragging down the power of this communication tool. Users are œtired of email defining their lives. The study found that experienced users are replying to their emails more slowly than new users, showing that a common etiquette for email use is slowly developing.

10. Broadband will change everything again.
The Annenberg researchers found that Just as the arrival of the Internet created a flood of social change, the proliferation of broadband technology as a method of accessing the Internet is beginning to cause its own revolution. Broadband is changing entirely our relationship with the Internet at home how often we go online, how long we stay online, and what we do online. Simply, modem use is disruptive; broadband use is integrative.

As the report concludes: The impact of the Internet cannot be overestimated. A technology that practically did no exist a few years ago is now a standard feature in nearly two-thirds of homes. The companies that market products without a prominently featured Web site are the tiny exception to the digital rule.

“It may well be that the most important questions of all about the Internet are those that have yet to be revealed about technological and social issues yet unknown.” As eMarketer reports, “If you think the influence of the Internet is over, you’re wrong…. The changes are going to keep coming, faster and faster.”

Simon van Wyk is managing director of marketing technology company HotHouse Interactive, which like the World Wide Web recently celebrated its 10th birthday.